Conditional survival analysis and real-time prognosis prediction in stage III T3-T4 colon cancer patients after surgical resection: a SEER database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Conditional survival (CS) takes into consideration the duration of survival post-surgery and can provide valuable additional insights. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors associated with reduced one-year postoperative conditional survival in patients diagnosed with stage III T3-T4 colon cancer and real-time prognosis prediction. Furthermore, we aim to develop pertinent nomograms and predictive models. METHODS: Clinical data and survival outcomes of patients diagnosed with stage III T3-T4 colon cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, covering the period from 2010 to 2019. Patients were divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The training set consisted of a total of 11,386 patients for conditional overall survival (cOS) and 11,800 patients for conditional cancer-specific survival (cCSS), while the validation set comprised 4876 patients for cOS and 5055 patients for cCSS. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to identify independent risk factors influencing one-year postoperative cOS and cCSS. Subsequently, predictive nomograms for cOS and cCSS at 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, and 5-year intervals were constructed based on the identified prognostic factors. The performance of these nomograms was rigorously assessed through metrics including the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and the area under curve (AUC) derived from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Clinical utility was further evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 18,190 patients diagnosed with stage III T3-T4 colon cancer were included in this study. Independent risk factors for one-year postoperative cOS and cCSS included age, pT stage, pN stage, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, receipt of chemotherapy, perineural invasion (PNI), presence of tumor deposits, the number of harvested lymph nodes, and marital status. Sex and tumor site were significantly associated with one-year postoperative cOS, while radiation therapy was notably associated with one-year postoperative cCSS. In the training cohort, the developed nomogram demonstrated a C-index of 0.701 (95% CI, 0.711-0.691) for predicting one-year postoperative cOS and 0.701 (95% CI, 0.713-0.689) for one-year postoperative cCSS. Following validation, the C-index remained robust at 0.707 (95% CI, 0.721-0.693) for one-year postoperative cOS and 0.700 (95% CI, 0.716-0.684) for one-year postoperative cCSS. ROC and calibration curves provided evidence of the model's stability and reliability. Furthermore, DCA underscored the nomogram's superior clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS: Our study developed nomograms and predictive models for postoperative stage III survival in T3-T4 colon cancer with the aim of accurately estimating conditional survival. Survival bias in our analyses may lead to overestimation of survival outcomes, which may limit the applicability of our findings.

Comparing the short-term clinical outcomes and therapeutic effects of different colectomies in patients with refractory slow-transit constipation in eastern countries: a network meta-analysis.

Surgical treatment has been widely used in patients with refractory slow transit constipation (RSTC). The aim of this network meta-analysis (NMA) was to compare the effects of different colectomies on short-term postoperative complications and quality of life in patients with RSTC. Electronic literature searches were performed in the PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, WANFANG DATA, and Cochrane Central Register of controlled trials databases and were searched up to December 2022. Selected to compare the short-term clinical outcomes and quality of life of the treatment of RSTC. A random-effects Bayesian NMA was conducted to assess and rank the effectiveness of different surgical modalities. This study included a total of six non-randomized controlled trials involving 336 subjects. It was found that subtotal colectomy with cecorectal anastomosis (CRA) demonstrated superior effectiveness in several aspects, including reduced hospital stay (MD 0.06; 95% CI [0.02, 1.96]), shorter operative time (MD 4.75; 95% CI [0.28, 14.07]), lower constipation index (MD 0.61; 95% CI [0.04, 1.71]), improved quality of life (MD 4.42; 95% CI [0.48, 4.42]). Additionally, in terms of short-term clinical outcomes, subtotal colectomy with ileosigmoidal anastomosis (SC-ISA) procedure ranked the highest in reducing small bowel obstruction (OR 0.24; 95% CI [0.02, 0.49]), alleviating abdominal pain (OR 0.53; 95% CI [0.05, 1.14]), minimizing abdominal distension (OR 0.33; 95% CI [0.02, 0.65]), and reducing incision infection rates (OR 0.17; 95% CI [0.01, 0.33]). Furthermore, SC-ISA ranked as the best approach in terms of patient satisfaction (OR 0.66; 95% CI [0.02, 1.46]). Based on our research findings, we recommend that CRA be considered as the preferred treatment approach for patients diagnosed with RSTC.